AIAA San Francisco Section Newsletter
April 1994

Commercial Space:  Aging Oxymoron
Brenda Forman

	We've been hyping the idea of "commercial space" for 
over a decade now, with essentially zero success.  With the 
single exception of commercial communications satellites, 
nobody has yet figured out how to make any real bucks on 
orbit.  The reason is simple:  we're going at it completely 
backwards.
	"Commercial space" is an aging oxymoron today because 
nobody is offering people what they really want -- and are 
therefore willing to pay for.  Instead, space is routinely 
presented as the place where scientists do esoteric 
experiments and engineers do sophisticated technology.  Of 
course, space is both those things.  But if anybody hopes to 
make nay money there, it's going to have to become a lot 
more.
	Face it, folks, people will pinch every damn penny you 
try to extract from them for serious pursuits like science 
and technology.  But they will happily stuff dollars in your 
pocket if you offer them what they really want.  Essentially, 
that boils down to two things:  fun and excitement.
	If real money is ever to be made in space, I expect it 
to come from a couple of places entirely outside the 
traditional space community, i.e., entertainment and tourism.  
Not only are these already multi-billion-dollar markets but 
we already know there is enormous pent-up demand.  Some ten 
years back, for example, a Seattle group, Society 
Expeditions, offered reservations for an orbital tour of the 
earth from a vehicle they proposed to design and build.  Fro 
$5000, you could reserve your place on this thing; the money 
would be put into escrow; and when the vehicle was ready, you 
had your place in line guaranteed.  Almost immediately, they 
got 300 reservations.
	Now, real space tourism -- where you physically got into 
orbit -- is going to have to wait until somebody finally gets 
the cost-per-pound-to-orbit down to something ordinary people 
can afford.  In the meantime, though, there are more and more 
ways these days of going places in the comfort of your own 
home.  It's call Virtual Reality.  (It might even be better 
than the real thing.  You could get into orbit without 
competing for an astronaut slot -- and you'd know your toilet 
would work when you needed it!)
	By and large, the general public neither understands nor 
cares about the science we do on, say, the shuttle.  Instead, 
what people want to do in space is to GO THERE.  Imagine, 
therefore, that you could personally orbit the earth or the 
moon, or go visit Mars or Jupiter -- all without bothering 
with the rigors of astronaut training of the discomforts of 
actual space flight.  Instead, just slip into your virtual 
reality suit and become your own satellite.
	Tour the lunar surface from the seat of your personal 
lunar rover -- all by telepresence or virtual reality.  Or 
explore the surface of Mars by interactive video.  Maybe you 
horrify the space scientists and spice it all up with a 
little fantasy -- a touch of Edgar Rice Burroughs or Ray 
Bradbury, maybe.  Sure, it ain't scientifically pure -- but 
it's FUN!  And if it's fun, people will PAY for it.  And in 
case you hadn't noticed, PAYING is what "commercial space" is 
supposed to be all about.
	The data requirements for this sort of thing might keep 
a regular troop of satellites and surface rovers busy, and if 
busy, then revenue-producing.  In other words, commercial 
space.
	A new young firm out here on the West Coast has begun to 
discover the truth of this potential market.  International 
Space Enterprises (ISE) has combined some very impressive 
American and Russian space talent into a joint venture to 
begin robotic lunar missions in 1996.  They have eight 
missions planned between now and 2000, and they've already 
got a goodly roster of parties interested in paying for the 
trip.  And the fastest response to date has been from the 
home virtual reality world interested in a tour of the moon.  
In the more traditional entertainment world, a film company 
has expressed interest in incorporation some of ISE's footage 
into future films, while IMAX is interested in a version of 
visiting the moon.
	This approach to space could represent a potential gold 
mine.  Yet thus far, we have systematically neglected it.  
The science and technology are classy; fun and excitement 
just somehow don't seem to be dignified enough.  Well, folds, 
we got a choice:  stick with our dignity or go make some 
money.  My guess is that the traditional space community will 
go down with dignity.  It'll be the brash, crass outsiders 
who make a bundle in space by letting us all have some fun 
with it.  And, say I , the sooner, the better.