AIAA San Francisco Section Newsletter
March 1994

QUO VADIMUS?: An Unscientific Survey
Part II - Possible Futures
Brenda Forman

	Last month, in Part I of this unscientific survey, I 
reported the responses of some two dozen of my experienced 
and articulate space friends to the question, "Where do you 
think the U.S. civil space program will be in the year 2000?"  
Faithful readers will recall that the answers were rather 
less than upbeat and that I promised to relay some of my 
respondents' ideas as to how the program might forge a 
better, more vibrant and viable future for itself.  Well, 
faithful to my promise, here I am.

	The general tone of the various futures my respondents 
envisioned might be described as "dubious optimism, hopeful 
pessimism."  Still, these days I'll take any optimism I can 
get, dubious or otherwise.  So here goes.  Pick the future 
you want.

	The Future is International:  Some believed strongly 
that the future for all, not just for the U.S., lies in 
broader and more systematic international cooperation.  Vern 
Riportella, head of Network Services, Intl., drew on his 
extensive experience working in the international arena, 
particularly with Russian space organizations, and asserted 
that, "None of the nations will be able to do what they want 
to do on their own, so there will be a global space program.  
You'll see consortia like ESA [European Space Agency] or 
Inmarsat [International Maritime Satellite], but more 
globalized."

	A NASA space scientist believed the future had to be 
international but that before it could progress, there had to 
be a common expression of purpose and mission.  "Everyone is 
in the same boat so I'm trying to work in the international 
arena through IAF [International Astronautical Federation] to 
get together a generally agreed policy statement about human 
exploration of space to use in the political process.  Then 
with a political basis, the technical work can go forward."

	A European source put a practical spin on the idea:  "If 
we're really going to have an international program, then 
let's have one to develop an international launcher.  After 
all, how many launchers does the planet need, especially if 
we're only going to have one space station?"

	The Future is Commercial:  Others thought that space's 
future would only brighten when it truly became a place for 
doing business.  A former astronaut now working in industry 
said, "Transportation will be key to the real revolution in 
space and that will just be starting around 2000.  With 
cheaper and more regular access to space, the research done 
on the shuttle and Mir over the last 20 years will begin to 
click and resources will begin to be put into products and 
services from space -- although I think that will be more 
private than public dollars."

	Courtney Stadd, head of the Washington consulting firm, 
Capitol Solutions, and a long-time space advocate with both 
extensive government and business background, agreed.  "There 
will be a continuing push for the Agency to be a customer for 
the private sector.  I think there will be a greater emphasis 
on more commercial partnerships on the model of the CCDSs 
[Center for the Commercial Development of Space].  There 
should also be an international remote sensing system."  He 
added, "The U.S. should get the U.S. rocket manufacturers 
together with the government to form a national launch 
vehicle corporation -- an American version of Ariane!"

	The Future is Scientific:  Others thought the program's 
future lay in space science.  A prominent space activist 
envisioned a future where "we will be working heavily on the 
study of Planet Earth while finalizing developments for a 
lunar colony and/or dark-side observatory."  Several 
respondents emphasized the importance of environmental 
monitoring.  One of those was Jerry Grey, Director of 
Aerospace & Science Policy, American Institute of Aeronautics 
& Astronautics, who said, "I see a strong emphasis on 
applications and looking for more and more commercial 
fallout.  Possibly there will be a great deal of activity 
moving into environmental monitoring.  EOS will be flying and 
that activity will be accelerating."

	The Future ain't what it used to be:  Back in those 
astounding days when we walked on the moon, who would have 
believed that a quarter-century later, our hopes and horizons 
would have shrunk so greatly?  These are modest futures 
indeed.  Yet I find hope in their very modesty -- because 
therein lies realism.  For twenty-five years, the civil space 
program has been pretending to itself that Apollo Shall Rise 
Again, and much of its current agony is traceable to that 
single insistent self-deception.  Maybe now we can chart a 
realistic -- and therefore achievable -- course for the 
future.  If so, then perhaps there really is hope after all.